Home Page

Papers

Submissions

News

Editorial Board

Special Issues

Open Source Software

Proceedings (PMLR)

Data (DMLR)

Transactions (TMLR)

Search

Statistics

Login

Frequently Asked Questions

Contact Us



RSS Feed

Asymptotic Equivalence of Bayes Cross Validation and Widely Applicable Information Criterion in Singular Learning Theory

Sumio Watanabe; 11(116):3571−3594, 2010.

Abstract

In regular statistical models, the leave-one-out cross-validation is asymptotically equivalent to the Akaike information criterion. However, since many learning machines are singular statistical models, the asymptotic behavior of the cross-validation remains unknown. In previous studies, we established the singular learning theory and proposed a widely applicable information criterion, the expectation value of which is asymptotically equal to the average Bayes generalization loss. In the present paper, we theoretically compare the Bayes cross-validation loss and the widely applicable information criterion and prove two theorems. First, the Bayes cross-validation loss is asymptotically equivalent to the widely applicable information criterion as a random variable. Therefore, model selection and hyperparameter optimization using these two values are asymptotically equivalent. Second, the sum of the Bayes generalization error and the Bayes cross-validation error is asymptotically equal to 2λ/n, where λ is the real log canonical threshold and n is the number of training samples. Therefore the relation between the cross-validation error and the generalization error is determined by the algebraic geometrical structure of a learning machine. We also clarify that the deviance information criteria are different from the Bayes cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion.

[abs][pdf][bib]       
© JMLR 2010. (edit, beta)

Mastodon