Distribution Estimation under the Infinity Norm
Aryeh Kontorovich, Amichai Painsky.
Year: 2025, Volume: 26, Issue: 162, Pages: 1−30
Abstract
We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees for the maximum likelihood estimator significantly improve upon the currently known results. A variety of techniques are utilized and innovated upon, including Chernoff-type inequalities and empirical Bernstein bounds. We illustrate our results in synthetic and real-world experiments. Finally, we apply our proposed framework to a basic selective inference problem, where we estimate the most frequent probabilities in a sample.